Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally.

Table of Contents


Expected daily cases by country


Figure 1: Map of the expected change in daily cases

Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates


Figure 2: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval). Countries/Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six countries/regions with the most cases currently


Figure 3: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in the six countries/regions with the most cases currently


Figure 4: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in the all countries/regions modelled


Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all countries/regions modelled. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in allcountries/regions modelled

Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all countries/regions modelled. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates summary table

Country/Region Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Australia 78 – 620 Increasing 1.3 – 3.6 2.5 – Cases decreasing
Austria 89 – 738 Increasing 1.1 – 2.2 2 – Cases decreasing
Bahrain 4 – 70 Likely increasing 0.8 – 1.8 0.25 – Cases decreasing
Belgium 183 – 1276 Increasing 1.1 – 2.5 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Brazil 94 – 657 Increasing 1.4 – 3.9 0.31 – Cases decreasing
Canada 78 – 452 Increasing 1.4 – 2.8 2 – Cases decreasing
China 32 – 170 Increasing 1.2 – 2.1 3 – Cases decreasing
China Excluding Hubei 5 – 71 Increasing 1.1 – 2.2 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Czechia 22 – 209 Increasing 1 – 2.2 0.37 – Cases decreasing
Denmark 19 – 181 Unsure 0.7 – 1.3 0.31 – Cases decreasing
Estonia 6 – 80 Unsure 0.6 – 1.4 0.18 – Cases decreasing
Finland 20 – 182 Likely increasing 0.9 – 1.9 0.28 – Cases decreasing
France 458 – 3680 Increasing 1 – 2 2.7 – Cases decreasing
Germany 1537 – 5664 Increasing 1.8 – 3.6 2 – Cases decreasing
Greece 10 – 98 Unsure 0.7 – 1.5 0.34 – Cases decreasing
Hong Kong 2 – 44 Likely increasing 0.9 – 2.9 0.24 – Cases decreasing
Hubei 2 – 49 Decreasing 0.1 – 0.4 5.1 – Cases decreasing
Iceland 20 – 179 Increasing 1 – 2.6 0.27 – Cases decreasing
Iran 280 – 1809 Unsure 0.7 – 1.2 4.3 – Cases decreasing
Ireland 27 – 247 Increasing 1 – 2.6 0.28 – Cases decreasing
Israel 59 – 430 Increasing 1.1 – 3.1 2.1 – Cases decreasing
Italy 1454 – 12957 Increasing 1 – 1.8 3.8 – Cases decreasing
Japan 14 – 117 Likely increasing 0.9 – 1.5 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Malaysia 66 – 326 Increasing 1.2 – 2.4 1.9 – Cases decreasing
Netherlands 179 – 1388 Increasing 1.1 – 2.4 2.5 – Cases decreasing
Norway 45 – 384 Unsure 0.8 – 1.5 2.5 – Cases decreasing
Pakistan 11 – 99 Increasing 1 – 2.8 0.18 – Cases decreasing
Philippines 27 – 216 Increasing 1 – 2.6 0.19 – Cases decreasing
Poland 32 – 281 Increasing 1.1 – 2.8 0.29 – Cases decreasing
Portugal 88 – 635 Increasing 1.1 – 2.9 0.23 – Cases decreasing
Qatar 2 – 46 Decreasing 0.3 – 0.7 0.18 – Cases decreasing
Romania 18 – 167 Increasing 0.9 – 2.3 0.24 – Cases decreasing
Singapore 19 – 94 Increasing 1.2 – 2.2 3.1 – Cases decreasing
Slovenia 10 – 119 Unsure 0.7 – 1.6 0.24 – Cases decreasing
South Korea 36 – 194 Likely increasing 1 – 1.6 3.9 – Cases decreasing
Spain 1258 – 9458 Increasing 1.1 – 2.3 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Sweden 38 – 272 Likely increasing 0.9 – 1.5 2.5 – Cases decreasing
Switzerland 348 – 2440 Increasing 1.2 – 2.5 2.2 – Cases decreasing
United Kingdom 262 – 2086 Increasing 1.1 – 2.6 2.3 – Cases decreasing
United States 1564 – 12204 Increasing 1.7 – 4.8 1.6 – 750


Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each country/region included in the analysis. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95\% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.